A critical trip to China for Taiwan’s Kuomintang leader aims to reshape the party’s electoral prospects amidst shifting political landscapes and escalating tensions.
The upcoming visit by Kuomintang (KMT) chairperson Cheng Li-wun to China represents a pivotal moment for the party’s standing in upcoming elections, according to political analysts. The journey, scheduled to commence this week, is being viewed as a critical test for Cheng’s leadership and the KMT’s strategy regarding Taiwan’s complex relationship with the mainland. The trip began on Tuesday with Cheng’s arrival in Shanghai, accompanied by a group of KMT representatives. During a pre-trip briefing, Cheng stated her primary goal was to demonstrate that Taiwan and China were capable of peaceful coexistence, explicitly rejecting the possibility of future military conflict. The delegation’s itinerary includes visits to Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu province, where they will pay respects at the mausoleum of Sun Yat-sen, a revered figure on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The trip culminates with a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Historical context is crucial to understanding this venture. President Ma Ying-jeou, also of the KMT, previously met with Xi Jinping in 2015 in Singapore, and again in 2024 as a private citizen. However, Cheng’s visit takes place within a drastically altered political environment. Sanho Chung, a political scientist at Taiwan’s National Cheng Kung University, noted a surge in Taiwanese nationalism and a corresponding decline in the KMT’s political influence following the 2011 Xi-Ma summit. Despite strong performance in local elections, the party has suffered consecutive defeats in presidential elections – 2016, 2020, and 2024 – to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP’s rise has presented a stark contrast to the KMT’s longstanding approach. Since 2016, the DPP has advocated for a more assertive foreign policy, enhancing Taiwan’s international visibility and bolstering its military capabilities. The party has also maintained an open dialogue with Chinese leaders despite Beijing’s severed formal contact following the election of Tsai Ing-wen. Adding to the complexity is the increasing military activity in the Taiwan Strait, including six rounds of live-fire exercises conducted by China since 2022, most recently in December 2025, which simulated the encirclement and blockade of Taiwan. This heightened military posture has fueled anxieties among Taiwanese citizens regarding the potential for intervention and the future security guarantees provided by the United States.
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