Strait of Hormuz Closure Fuels New Energy Vulnerabilities in Europe

The disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has exposed a developing crisis centered on Libyan oil production and its implications for European energy security.

The narrow Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil transport, experienced a significant disruption following a series of strikes targeting Iran in late February, leading to Tehran’s subsequent closure. This event triggered a surge in Brent crude prices, pushing them nearly to $120 per barrel, and forced major Gulf producers to curtail their output. Existing alternative pipeline systems, capable of transporting only 5 to 6 million barrels daily, are insufficient to fully compensate for the lost volume. A secondary vulnerability has emerged in Europe’s southern region, specifically through Libyan oil. Libya’s strategic location allows for the rapid delivery of its light, sweet crude to Italian refineries within 48 hours, a process unburdened by military protection or the need for lengthy detours. The nation’s production is now being utilized to offset the diminished supply from the Strait of Hormuz, with Egypt formalizing agreements to import approximately one million barrels monthly. However, this new reliance on Libyan oil is complicated by ongoing political instability. Since 2014, Libya has been divided between the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the forces of renegade commander Khalifa Haftar in the east. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) controls the key oil-producing areas, including major export terminals and significant oil fields. Political disputes frequently result in the cessation of oil production, with Haftar’s forces implementing blockades at ports and field gates. These actions, often accompanied by protests coordinated by tribal intermediaries, represent a recurring pattern in Libyan oil politics – a clear demonstration that the flow of oil depends on fragile, factional agreements. European policymakers have a history of overlooking supply sources when they are reliably delivering energy, a pattern that contributed to the EU’s reliance on Russian gas and now mirrors the growing dependence on Libyan oil. The potential for further disruptions and the escalating cost of securing this alternative supply are beginning to raise serious concerns about Europe’s energy future.