Cereal production is strong, but rising wheat flour prices pose a challenge to food security.
📍 Global – Primarily focusing on Cereal Markets
The outlook for cereal crops in 2026 is predominantly positive, with favourable production prospects anticipated across key regions. Planting of winter cereal crops – mainly wheat and barley – concluded successfully in November 2025 under ideal weather conditions, setting the stage for harvests from June to August. Aggregate output of 2025 spring cereals, including maize and wheat, reached an estimated 1.9 million tonnes, exceeding the five-year average by a healthy 5 percent, largely due to robust yields bolstered by supportive weather. Wheat and barley production specifically saw above-average results, reaching 600,000 and 500,000 tonnes respectively, demonstrating an impressive recovery in yields.
However, the picture isn’t entirely rosy. Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year are projected to be near the five-year average at 350,000 tonnes, indicating a continued need for external supply. This demand is largely driven by wheat, accounting for approximately 95 percent of total cereal import requirements, and will satisfy roughly half of domestic wheat consumption for food and milling. This situation is compounded by rising food prices, with the IMF projecting inflation to climb from 5.1 percent in 2024 to 6.9 percent in 2026, primarily due to increased food costs.
The impact of these trends is being felt acutely at the retail level, with prices of first grade wheat flour rising sharply between March 2025 and November 2025 before stabilizing at a 6 percent premium over previous year levels as of March 2026. This inflationary pressure adds to concerns about food affordability and food security, demanding careful monitoring of both production levels and global commodity markets.
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CerealMarket FoodSecurity WheatPrices Inflation AgriculturalProduction GlobalFoodSupply IMF CommodityPrices